" This volatile investment market is one to watch "Diamond investments may turn up profits “in the rough”
Published on: Thursday, March 27, 2008 Written by: Melana Yanos
Buying diamonds as gifts and as jewelry is a common practice, but investing in diamonds is not for the average person. After all, the most economically feasible diamond investments still require access to a tremendous amount of capital and high tolerance of risk.
Diamonds have been notoriously difficult to sell on the resale market at a profit; in order to make money, diamond investors need to find a buyer who is willing to pay more for their stone than they did. Nevertheless, diamond investments are being viewed as increasingly attractive as a result of recent trends that suggest a diminishing global supply.
Multifaceted investments
Diamonds carry unique attributes that distinguish them from other types of investments. As a highly concentrated asset, diamonds are extremely portable and easy to have on one’s person at all times as jewelry or loose stones. Investing in diamonds also carries benefits of financial privacy and complete ownership.
Diamond values are not directly linked to stock and bond markets. Diamond prices have increased an average of 15 percent each year since 1949, according to statistics published by diamond manufacturer Ajediam on their company website.
[ The Diamond Guru: Not so. Prices crashed overnight in 1980 when De Beers decided to flood the market with USD$8 billion of their own reserves in order to gain control and flush out rough diamonds that were being stored by cutters. It has taken over 25 years for consumer confidence to reach today's levels. Fortunately De Beers only control 40% of today's market as opposed to nearly 80% back in 1980 ]
“Diamonds do hold their value well,” Chuck Jaffe wrote in his syndicated column last December. “So long as the stone is real, it’s not going to zero like a company headed for bankruptcy.”
International demand for diamonds appears to be on the rise, especially as an increasing number of high net worth individuals emerge in the Russian, Middle Eastern and Asian markets. The emerging middle class in China is expected to create a sharp increase in demand for diamonds and other luxury goods, according to an article in The Financial Post last June.
Extremely rare stones seem to carry the highest potential for strong performance and returns. The values of colored diamonds, for instance, have roughly doubled every six to seven years during the past 35 years, Stephen Hershoff, senior executive and managing director at Pastor-Genève, said in an e-mail interview.
Furthermore, “the colored diamond market has always been an asset class that has held its value during recessions and economic downturns,” he said.
Colored diamonds are exceptionally scarce when compared to the white variety; in terms of natural supply, the ratio of white to colored stones is approximately 10,000-to-1, according to an article posted on the Pastor-Genève website last October.
Investing in diamonds, however, is a high-risk endeavor. Regardless of the quality and appraised value of the stone, an investor’s ability to reap a profit is at the mercy of what a buyer is willing to pay.
“Diamonds are appraised and graded, but prices move based on consumer sentiment,” Jaffe wrote.
Diamonds are not especially liquid, and an investor who wishes to sell his or her diamond in order to obtain quick cash can suffer enormous losses.
“Dealers who buy jewelry don’t pay retail, and the nation’s pawn shops are full of expensive gems that were turned in for a lot less cash than they were purchased for,” Jaffe wrote.
Even colored diamonds “take some time to sell,” Hershoff said.
“There are no specific bids and offers on a daily basis,” he said. “It is more like art, coins or land in that you have to watch for similar sales to get an idea of price performance.”
If diamonds are bought at retail prices—generally two to three times more than true wholesale prices—there is “no shot” of selling them for a profit for at least a decade, Jaffe said.
[ The Diamond Guru :There are several factors contributing to low liquidity of diamonds. One of the main is the lack of terminal market. Most commodities have terminal markets, and some form of commodities exchange, clearing house, and central storage facilities. This does not exist for diamonds. Diamonds are also subject to value added tax in the Unites Kingdom, Europe, Goods & Services Tax in Australia and sales tax in most developed countries, therefore reducing their effectiveness as an investment medium. Most diamonds are sold through retail stores at very high profit margins. This is due to high overhead costs of operating a jewelry retail store ]
And as a highly concentrated and portable asset, diamonds can be easily lost or stolen without proper security measures.
Recent history serves as a cautionary tale about the potential for diamond scams. In the late 1970s, a large number of fraudulent investment firms engaged in a phone campaign to sell mail-order diamonds, according to a chapter in The Diamond Invention by Edward Jay Epstein. In addition, many of the firms held diamond-investment seminars in expensive hotels and sold sealed packets of diamonds to the audience.
Although the sealed packets distributed through seminars and by mail included certificates guaranteeing the quality of the diamonds—so long as the packets remained sealed—buyers were in for an unpleasant surprise.
“Customers who broke the seal [in order to verify the quality of the diamonds] often learned from independent appraisers that their diamonds were of a quality inferior to that stated,” Epstein wrote. “Many were worthless.”
In general, investors who know little about diamonds and how to buy them can be especially ripe targets for unscrupulous dealers.
Mining the diamond market
Diamond investments are often met with pessimism and, at times, downright condescension. Jaffe, for instance, wrote about diamonds in his syndicated column, titled Stupid Investment of the Week, last December. Diamonds may provide a terrific return as an “investment in emotion,” but “try to cash in a diamond for a profit and you have all sorts of trouble,” he wrote.
But is investing in diamonds as imprudent as it sounds? Counter to what the skeptics might expect, institutional investors are beginning to enter the diamond investment market. Swiss firm Diapason Commodities has been raising money for the launch of its Diamond Circle Capital product, according to an article published in Investment Adviser last June.
The fund will only buy polished diamonds worth more than £506,000, or approximately $1 million. The product will be the first London Stock Exchange listed fund to invest in diamonds and trade them on the secondary market.
The state of the diamond market is even more compelling.
“Diamond supply is declining for the first time in 30 years and it is primarily happening in areas where they find rare colored diamonds,” Hershoff said.
The leading mine in Australia, which produces 90 percent of the world’s pink diamonds, saw a drop of 30 percent last year in supply, he said. An additional decline of 20 to 30 percent is expected for this year.
“Pink diamonds are becoming more and more difficult to source, which is putting tremendous upward pressure on prices,” he said.
In addition, the balance of supply and demand for diamonds—and consequently, their pricing—is no longer artificially controlled by the DeBeers company, which historically owned more than 80 percent of the market.
“DeBeers is no longer the controlling factor that it once was 30 years ago,” Hershoff said. “[Their] market share has dropped to just over 40 percent of world supply; they have sold off their stockpile, and missed out on new discoveries in Canada, Australia, Russia and Central Africa.”
How to invest in diamonds
Diamond investments are probably not suitable for most investors because of the amount of capital required.
[ The Diamond Guru : Diamonds are a problematic investment. While it is easy to buy a diamond, it is not easy to sell one unless one is already an established diamond merchant. Establishing a trusted relationship with a diamond merchant similar to a stockbroker involves more than purchasing diamonds. One needs to understand diamonds. Just like not all stockbrokers are experts in their fields likewise there are a lot of diamond merchants too whose expertise is very questionable.
However we disagree with the author on the amount of capital required to invest. Real Estate property investments tend to cost a lot more than diamond " investments " ] .
“The new breed [of diamond investors] are probably already millionaires and—unlike the majority of normal investors—able to shoulder losing up to £50,000, the minimum you would spend on investment diamonds,” according to the article posted on the Pastor-Genève website last October
There are ways to mitigate the risk of enormous losses, though. If investors decide to buy, they should follow two basic rules: first, they should buy diamonds at wholesale or near-wholesale prices; and second, they should only buy diamonds that have been internationally certified by one of the major gemological laboratories, such as the Gemological Institute of America (GIA).
[ The Diamond Guru : In light of the GIA bribery scandal ," Certifigate " , and our strong support of Chaim Even-Zohar's revelations, Diamond Imports refuse to stock ANY NEW GIA graded diamonds offered to us both for ethical reasons and in our opinion many inaccurate diamond colour and clarity grades.
Likewise anyone dealing in GIA graded diamonds is NOT someone we wish to deal with until GIA’s Gem Trade Laboratory decides to disclose the bribers' names and comes clean in order to inadvertently avoid dealing with a GIA briber.
Diamond vendors can not be absolved of any wrong doing hiding behind a diamond grading report recognised or unrecognised.
Diamond Imports have both a moral and ethical duty of care to their clients
GIA is NOT an IDC diamond grading laboratory.
Their colour grading standards are simply not as strict and Diamond Imports is not prepared to jeopardise their reputation unlike other diamond vendors who sell any diamond just for the sake of closing a sale.
There are numerous diamond grading laboratories, and there is no easy way for investors, consumers, or even dealers to know the relative competence and integrity of each. See NON compliant diamond grading laboratories here.
Even the market-leading Gemological Institute of America (GIA) suffered embarrassment recently when a small number of large, important and valuable diamonds were overgraded, resulting in legal action by one dealer against the dealer who had submitted them to the GIA for grading.
This scandal has become known as Certifigate.
A number of GIA employees left after the scandal emerged, and the GIA has changed a number of its procedures.
There are also a number of laboratories affiliated to CIBJO. There must be commercial pressure on all labs to upgrade marginal stones or lose business to other labs who are prepared to reduce standards.
Read more here:How GIA Grades Diamonds: The Real Truth ]
Investors should try to obtain stones that are as rare as possible, such as stones of the colored varieties. By virtue of their rarity, colored stones are comparatively easy to pass on and are “consequently popular investments,” according to the Pastor-Genève website.
It is important that colored diamonds are natural stones as opposed to synthetic creations, according to Hershoff. Synthetic colored diamonds are much more abundant and priced much lower than their authentic counterparts.
Investors should also be wary of buying uncut stones, which can be “extremely risky,” Hershoff said.
“The difference in value between the colored diamond grades once the stone is cut and polished can mean tens and even hundreds of thousands of dollars per carat,” he said.
[ The Diamond Guru: Polished and rough diamonds lack some of the desirable attributes of investment vehicles, including liquidity, homogeneity and fungibility.
Fungibility does not imply liquidity, and liquidity does not imply fungibility. Diamonds can be bought and sold (the trade is liquid), but individual diamonds are not interchangeable (diamonds are not fungible). Zimbabwean dollar bank notes are interchangeable in London (they are fungible there), but they are not easily traded there (they are not liquid in London).
However Round Brilliant Diamonds in D Colour and either IF or VVS1 Clarity in Excellent Proportions, Excellent Polish and Excellent Symmetry are considered fungibile amongst the Chinese community. The problem here lies that one must always verify the diamond, it's grading and the grading report are genuine if these diamonds are acceptable as hard currency.]
Because sales are largely unregulated, “finding a reputable broker is key,” according to the Pastor-Genève website. Performing due diligence on potential brokers can help protect an investor from abuse by unscrupulous individuals.
As is the case for any type of investment, investors should educate themselves as much as possible about diamonds and what factors could potentially affect their values.
When speculated properly, diamonds may prove to yield decent performance as medium- or long-term investments. However, a successful diamond investment will probably require the ultimate luxury: time.
“Most investors look at holding periods of at least five years,” Hershoff said. “When they do look to sell they allow a few months to broker the stone, whether at auction, at the dealer level, through trade shows or to retail buyers.”
Retail diamond prices are continuing to trend upwards but profitable margins on resale remain largely unproven. Still, if demand outstrips supply as industry experts predict, then diamonds present an enticing—though risky—opportunity for investment.
[ The Diamond Guru : The main positive investment parameter of diamonds is their high value per unit weight, which makes them easy to store and transport. A high quality diamond weighing as little as 2 or 3 grams could be worth as much as 100 kilos of gold. This extremely condensed value and portability does bestow diamonds as a form of emergency disaster fund. People and populations displaced by war or extreme upheaval have utilised this property successfully, and presumably will do so again in the future.]
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Feb. 1, 2008 Industry Analysis: The Economy May Slow, but Diamond Cutters Won't
As economists debate the likelihood of a U.S. recession, diamond manufacturers in India, Israel and New York say they plan to sell to emerging markets rather than slow their production of polished stones.
Manufacturers continue to be more concerned about future supplies -- largely because of rough being redirected to African diamond operations and changes in the De Beers Diamond Trading Company (DTC) sightholder list -- than they are about the prospect of diminished demand in the U.S., even though it accounts for about 48% of world diamond sales."We anticipated the slowdown since last summer and have been sending our production to the fast-growing markets of the Far East and the domestic [Indian] retailers," said one major Indian manufacturer.
China, India and the Middle East have seen double-digit growth during the past five years. They still represent a relatively small portion of world demand, however, leaving some executives concerned about accumulating inventory and increasing debt.
Those diamond manufacturers who have scaled back their polishing operations because of the economy acknowledged that other, competing manufacturers will certainly purchase the rough they don't use, so it is unlikely there will be any decrease in polished diamond supplies this year.
This is supported by the fact that southern African "beneficiation" diamond cutting operations will undoubtedly continue to grow and, given the enormous political pressure for their success, will not be subject to supply cutbacks.
Despite slower-than-expected U.S. holiday sales, the DTC released large allocations of rough and raised prices an average of 3.5% at the Jan. 14-18 sight. Contrary to initial reports, the sight -- which totaled nearly $600 million -- included increases across the board, not just on the large, high-quality material.
Diamond manufacturers see this as a clear sign that the DTC has truly abandoned its longtime "custodianship" of the diamond market, withholding supplies and stabilizing prices when the market turned soft.While most U.S. retailers will turn in positive numbers for 2007, because the slowdown did not begin in earnest until September, economists warn that 2008 may bring sales declines.
This will force some retailers to retrench and lead to consolidation within the wholesale and manufacturing sectors of the industry.Indeed, that was the mood in Japan, the world's second largest consumer diamond market.
Dealers there are very pessimistic about their prospects for 2008, according to a Jewellery News Asia (JNA) survey. Diamond dealers who responded to JNA's spot survey said they believe sales will decline around 5%-15% or, at best, see a single-digit increase this year against a very lackluster 2007.
RETAIL: Demand for larger diamonds and top colored stones was the one bright spot for U.S. retail jewelers in 2007, but according to a just-released luxury market survey, that spot may be dimming as well.
According to a survey conducted by Unity Marketing, luxury consumer confidence for the final quarter of 2007 plunged to its lowest level since the survey began four years ago, as wealthy consumers adopted an increasingly pessimistic view of the U.S. economy. The report noted that spending among this group fell 20% during the holiday season and will continue to be soft as an increasing number of respondents claimed they would continue to cut back during 2008.
Confidence among general consumers declined in January, according to the Conference Board's monthly survey. January's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 87.9 from 90.6 in December, suggesting that consumers may continue to restrain their spending.
The Board found strong pessimism about the direction of the economy over the coming six months, particularly business conditions and employment prospects.MACRO: The world stock markets continued their volatility, while gold and platinum soared to all-time records in the wake of economic uncertainty.
This week opened with gold spotting at $927.50 per ounce, while platinum's per-ounce price broke the $1,700 barrier.The U.S. Federal Reserve, which last week issued its steepest interest rate cut in more than two decades (0.75%), added another half percent drop at this week's meeting, hinting at even further cuts if the economy fails to respond.
The downturn in the U.S. housing market and the related subprime mortgage meltdown are taking most of the blame for the current turmoil. Sales of new homes fell last year by 26%, the steepest drop since records began in 1963, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Monday.
In December, the median price of a new home was down 10.9% from December of the previous year.One bright spot appeared this week as the U.S. Commerce Department reported that demand for big-ticket durable goods rose 5.2% in December, more than a percentage point above what economists had predicted, prompting some to say that the economy has more underlying strength than many analysts believe.
The U.S. Congress is considering an economic stimulus package to jump-start consumer spending. Economists remain divided over whether or not the legislative package or the Federal Reserve rate cuts will have any real effect on improving the economy. Source: Russell ShorSenior Industry Analyst
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